In the previous post, we successfully estimated a model with a nonlinear trend by using Stan. But please remember this is a time series dataset. Does it include any other kind of nonlinear components? Yes, we have to be careful for seasona…

The previous post reviewed how to estimate a simple hierarchical Bayesian models. You can see more complicated cases in a great textbook "The BUGS book". But personally hierarchical Bayesian modeling is the most useful for time-series anal…

In 2 previous posts, you learned what Bayesian modeling and Stan are and how to install them. Now you are ready to try it on some very Bayesian problems - as many people love - such as hierarchical Bayesian model. Definition of hierarchica…